Ɗaya daga cikin takardun kwanan nan, wanda aka bayyana a JAMA a watan Fabrairu na shekarar 2014, ya nuna kadan daga cikin ƙananan kiba a cikin yara a cikin shekaru daya (shekaru 2-5), wanda ya nuna cewa yawancin ƙudan zuma ya kasance "ƙaddara." Wani, an buga a kan layi farkon watan Afrilu a JAMA Pediatrics ya ruwaito cewa ba wai kawai yawan ƙananan ƙananan kifin ya kasa karuwa ba, amma mummunan ƙari a cikin yara ya tashi da yawa.
Irin wannan gagarumar nasarar da ake yi a cikin wannan rahotanni a cikin gajeren lokaci yana cewa wani abu game da haɗakarwa da halayyar dangantakarmu da wannan batu. Sun kuma tambayi tambaya: a ina muke yanzu, gaske?
An wallafa farko daga cikin waɗannan sharuɗɗa tare da maƙalarin taken, "Tsarin yara da babba a cikin Amurka, 2011-2012." An kwashe shi a cikin wani nau'i na bayanai game da dukkanin kungiyoyi daban-daban sun kasance mai sauƙi a cikin ƙananan ƙima. yara masu shekaru 2 zuwa 5. Ko ta yaya, wannan ya ba da labari na gaba a cikin New York Times: "Hanyoyin ƙanshin yara ya kai kashi 43 cikin dari a cikin shekaru goma." Idan wannan daidai ne, zai zama dalilin biki.
Binciken gaskiya na farko shine, binciken ƙarshe a cikin kalmomin marubuta: " A bayyane, babu matukar canje-canje a cikin yaduwa a cikin matasa ko matasan tsakanin 2003-2004 da 2011-2012 ."
Abinda masu binciken suka ruwaito, bayanan bayan shekaru goma, ba duk wani canji a cikin yawan yawan yawan kiba ba. A cikin nazarin nazarin yawan mutane fiye da dubu tara, wakiltar yawan mutane miliyan 300, yawancin kiba ya kasance a cikin mafi yawancin kungiyoyi, ciki har da jarirai a cikin shekaru 2.
Tarurrukan sun fi muhimmanci a cikin mata fiye da shekaru 60, kuma suka fadi da muhimmanci - duk da haka kawai (p = 0.03) - a cikin yara tsakanin shekarun da suka wuce 2 da 5.
Wannan shi ne labarin da ya girgiza kare a cikin Fabrairu, ya haifar da ambaliyar labarun hyperbolic: a cikin yara 871 tsakanin shekarun da suka wuce 2 da 5, yawancin kiba ya ƙi yayin da ya kasance a tsaye ko ya tashi a cikin dukan sauran kungiyoyi, ciki har da yara ƙarami har yanzu.
Rahotanni 43% da aka ba da rahoton ba cikakke ba ne; amma yawan dangi. Don samun mahimmanci a kan wannan, ku yi la'akari da yawan yawan yara 100, masu shekaru 2 zuwa 5; kuma suna tunanin 60 daga cikinsu suna da girma. Kwatanta wannan rukuni zuwa wani rukuni guda iri daya bayan shekaru goma daga baya wanda kawai 17 daga cikin yara yayi girma. Mafi bambanci a cikin ƙanshin kiba a nan zai kasance 43%.
Yanzu, ka yi tunanin maimakon a cikin asalin kungiyar shekaru goma da suka shude, kimanin 15 daga cikin yara sunyi girma; kuma a halin yanzu, a cikin rukunin kamfanoni, kimanin 9 na yara suna obese. Cikakken ƙimar ƙanshin kiba shine a fili kawai 6% (watau 15% -9%). Amma yaya game da raguwa da kiba? Wannan zai zama kashi 40%. Ma'anar shi shine [(15% -9%) / 15%] = 40%. Sakamakon kashi 6% shine kashi 40% na lambar asalin. Wannan shine bambanci tsakanin cikakkiyar kashi da zumunta.
Kusan kashi 100 daga cikin 100, wanda shine mafi yawan mu sa ran. Dalili na mutunci sun fito ne daga lambar farawa, duk abin da ya faru. A kan iyakar dangi, wani digo daga mutane 2 da ɗari da X to 1 mutum da ɗari da X ba 1% - yana da 50%. Wannan zai zama gaskiya idan jimlar ta kasance daga 2 a kowace miliyan zuwa 1 kowace miliyan. Ana danganta yawan halayen halayen likitoci a cikin wallafe-wallafen likita, kuma sun ruwaito a cikin mashahuriyar mashahuri, don dalilai mafi ma'ana: sun nuna sauti da yawa fiye da ƙarami, lambobi masu mahimmanci.
Mene ne ainihin, lambobi masu yawa a wannan yanayin?
Hanyoyin ababa a cikin shekaru 2 zuwa 5 sun fadi daga 13.9% zuwa 8.4%, cikakkiyar bambanci na 5.5%. Na amince ku iya ganin dalilin da yasa canza canji ya sanya adadin. Wani sanarwa cewa "yawancin kifin da ba a canza ba a cikin shekaru goma da suka gabata, tare da kara yawan karuwan da aka gani, da yiwuwar ƙarfafawa kimanin kashi 5.5% a cikin yara 2 zuwa 5" daidai ne, kuma kamar yadda dullun ruwa yake.
Binciken da aka yi kwanan nan ya kawo damuwa cewa ko da wannan labari mai kyau bazai iya dogara da shi ba. Idan ƙananan kiba mai tsanani ke tashi a cikin yara kamar yadda aka ruwaito su yi a cikin tsofaffi, to bazai iya taimaka mana mu fahimci yaduwar cutar ba don tambayi nawa yara da yawa ko kisa. Za mu iya buƙatar fara tambayar: yaya nauyin kisa ko babba ne yara masu cutar? Bayanan sharuɗɗa suna nuna cewa: mafi tsanani sosai haka.
Tabbas, an mayar da hankali ga matsalar matsalar ƙananan yara a cikin shekaru goma da suka gabata, ciki har da kokarin da Uwargidan Shugaban kasa ta yi. Akwai wasu alamomi na gaske na cigaba.
Amma tambaya a farkon shine: ina muke yanzu? Amsar ita ce: tare da alƙawari na nasara na gaskiya har zuwa yanzu mai nisa, da miliyoyin kafin mu barci!